Trump-Backed Republicans Lose Dozens of Midterm Races, Raising 2026

Dozens of Republican candidates directly endorsed by Donald Trump lost their US midterm election races, according to analysis by the Guardian, raising questions over the power of the president's support. In past elections, Trump's endorsements have been coveted. In the final stages of this year's campaign, he actively urged voters to act as though he were on the ballot. But just half of the 26 candidates Trump endorsed for the US Senate had won their elections as of Wednesday at 5pm ET, according to a Guardian tally. Of the 23 candidates for state governor endorsed by Trump, only nine had won their elections. Twelve were defeated, with two races still to be called. The president's endorsed House candidates fared better, with roughly 60% winning their races, although many in competitive House districts were defeated. In total, 46 Trump-backed candidates for the House have lost so far, with Trump's tumbling approval ratings appearing to challenge the influence of his public support for Republican candidates. Over the last decade, Trump has reshaped the Republican party in the mold of his Make America Great Again (Maga) vision, handpicking loyal candidates to run in competitive races and occasionally rejecting established Republicans. The US president's base has been loyal to his choices. In 2022, approximately 82% of candidates endorsed by Trump went on to win their race, according to the Guardian.

Why Trump's Endorsement Lost Its Shine in the Midterms

Trump's endorsement was once seen as a golden ticket in Republican primaries. But in this year's midterms, it became a liability in many general election contests. The numbers tell a stark story: only half of his Senate picks won, and just nine of 23 governor picks prevailed.

The shift is partly due to Trump's own declining approval ratings. As his popularity waned, so did the value of his blessing. Candidates who tied themselves closely to him struggled to win over independent and moderate voters.

Moreover, the political landscape has changed. After a decade of Trump's dominance, some voters may be experiencing fatigue. The Maga movement still energizes a loyal base, but that base alone is not enough to win competitive districts.

The Races That Mattered Most

The Senate and governor races were the most visible tests of Trump's influence. In the Senate, 13 of his 26 endorsed candidates won, a 50% success rate that falls far short of his 2022 record. Governor races were even worse: only nine of 23 won, with two still undecided.

House races offered a mixed picture. About 60% of Trump-backed House candidates won, but many of those victories came in safe Republican seats. In competitive districts, his endorsees often faltered, contributing to the 46 losses so far.

These results suggest that while Trump retains a strong hold on the party's base, his coattails are shrinking. Candidates in swing districts may now think twice before seeking his endorsement.

What This Means for the Republican Party

The Republican Party has been reshaped in Trump's image over the past decade. But these midterm results could signal a turning point. Party leaders may begin to question whether blind loyalty to Trump is a winning strategy.

Some Republicans are already calling for a reevaluation. They argue that the party needs to broaden its appeal beyond the Maga base to win national elections. Others insist that Trump's endorsement remains crucial for energizing voters.

The internal debate is likely to intensify as the party looks ahead to future elections. The outcome will determine whether Trump's influence continues to dominate or begins to wane.

Key Takeaways from the Midterm Results

• Senate: Only 50% of Trump-endorsed candidates won, a significant drop from previous cycles.
• Governor: Just 9 of 23 Trump-backed candidates won, with 12 defeats and 2 races pending.
• House: Roughly 60% won, but 46 losses occurred, especially in competitive districts.
• Approval ratings: Trump's declining popularity appears to have hurt his endorsees.
• Party future: The results raise questions about the durability of Trump's influence over the GOP.

Trump's Endorsement Track Record: Then vs. Now

The contrast with previous elections is striking. In 2022, about 82% of Trump's endorsed candidates won their races. This year, that number has plummeted, especially in high-profile contests.

The table below compares the success rates for key offices in the 2022 midterms and the current cycle, based on Guardian analysis.

While the 2022 figure is an overall success rate, the current cycle shows a clear decline, particularly in Senate and governor races.

What to Watch Next

As the remaining races are called, the full extent of Trump's losses will become clearer. Two governor races are still outstanding, and they could further dent his win rate.

More importantly, the Republican Party must decide how to move forward. Will it continue to rely on Trump's endorsement, or will it seek a new direction? The answer will shape the party's future and the next election cycle.

For now, the midterm results serve as a warning: Trump's influence is not what it once was. Candidates who align with him may face an uphill battle, especially in general elections. The background to this story is set out in Business: latest articles.